Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 2.088801 2.194073 2.306745 2.437243 2.585459 2.750131 2.949214
2025-10-05 2.002243 2.140556 2.294861 2.482371 2.707925 2.976054 3.328370
2025-10-12 1.957219 2.120837 2.309389 2.547701 2.848939 3.230095 3.774643
2025-10-19 1.886270 2.062126 2.269210 2.538139 2.890434 3.357855 4.073119
2025-10-26 1.834228 2.020655 2.244385 2.542106 2.945300 3.505571 4.426679
2025-11-02 1.766913 1.955907 2.185463 2.495808 2.925506 3.542031 4.610540
2025-11-09 1.720909 1.914548 2.152726 2.480193 2.944655 3.635485 4.910321
2025-11-16 1.681405 1.879029 2.124894 2.468201 2.966285 3.733534 5.244406
2025-11-23 1.644180 1.844506 2.096185 2.452389 2.979723 3.818648 5.579147
2025-11-30 1.622696 1.828849 2.090944 2.468107 3.040834 3.991074 6.171235
2025-12-07 1.571117 1.772561 2.029356 2.400296 2.966895 3.916393 6.144087
2025-12-14 1.541183 1.743364 2.002856 2.381334 2.968271 3.977907 6.495603
2025-12-21 1.504768 1.705530 1.964524 2.345058 2.942103 3.990458 6.740398
2025-12-28 1.498649 1.706970 1.979184 2.386676 3.045625 4.268405 7.993848
2026-01-04 1.498979 1.716692 2.005299 2.446633 3.186177 4.656625 10.263710
2026-01-11 1.476863 1.695558 1.987374 2.438045 3.206126 4.786891 11.678949
2026-01-18 1.459969 1.680882 1.977871 2.441785 3.248288 4.979204 14.122154
2026-01-25 1.429699 1.647259 1.940325 2.399507 3.202093 4.944808 14.726991
2026-02-01 1.409472 1.626822 1.920990 2.385262 3.207313 5.044033 17.232794
2026-02-08 1.391232 1.608627 1.904261 2.374313 3.217771 5.160259 21.171569
2026-02-15 1.372801 1.589718 1.885906 2.359841 3.220181 5.255866 26.758125
2026-02-22 1.363713 1.583374 1.885456 2.374287 3.280339 5.535014 58.506459
2026-03-01 1.332981 1.546484 1.839479 2.312026 3.182460 5.315564 41.494712